Expected price volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) surged to its highest since July.
Bitcoin price volatility has reached its highest level since July, with betting markets showing increasingly strong competition in the. The presidential race continues in key battleground states, which suggests the cryptocurrency market is bracing for potential turbulence ahead of crucial developments. Data from Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency options exchange, showed its implied volatility index jumped to 63.24% on an annualized basis. This reading, a forecast of the magnitude of the swings in over the next month, signals growing market unease over a potential political and economic reset.
The seven-day implied volatility has leaped even higher, to 74.4% annually, way over the actual price swings of 41.4% experienced this week. The political environment has been shifting overall, but particularly in Pennsylvania, one of those key swing states. The implied probability of Donald Trump's win in Polymarket prediction markets has fallen from 61% to 53%. In fact, according to a New York Times/Siena survey, the most recent polling data is exceptionally tight between both parties.
This political uncertainty comes at the same time as some pretty high volatility in the price of Bitcoin. After almost reaching a new record of $73,500 earlier in the week, the cryptocurrency has now retreated back below $68,000.
The uncertainty has some ripple effects, going well beyond just cryptocurrency markets. The Ice BofA Move index, a measure of expected Treasury-note volatility, jumped to 135%—the highest since last October.