Correction phase from March to August spanned 154 days; Fibonacci calculations predict around 95 days for the current downturn.
The period of correction, spanning from March to August, encompassed a total of 154 days. According to Fibonacci calculations, the current downturn is expected to last around 95 days. However, an alternative Fibonacci estimate suggests a shorter correction period of 58 days, indicating a faster recovery for major altcoins. With Bitcoin going through its latest correction phase, market observers are diligently analyzing patterns to predict the duration and impact of this downturn.
Throughout the price trajectory of Bitcoin since March 2024, there have been significant fluctuations, including three major downward movements within a broad distribution phase. The first decline, lasting from March 11 to April 29, spanned 49 days. The second decline, from June 3 to July 1, lasted 28 days. The third decline, from July 29 to September 2, extended over 35 days. By averaging the durations of these corrections, we find that each correction phase typically lasted about 37 days. However, an alternative calculation considering the rapid drop from July 29 to August 5 suggests the potential for shorter corrections averaging around 12 days.
When it comes to predicting the length of corrections, ETHNews analytical methods offer valuable insights but not definitive answers. Dividing the total duration from the start of the decline in March to early August by Fibonacci ratios suggests longer periods that do not align with observed patterns. However, adjusting the perspective to account for quicker resolutions, similar to the early August correction, forecasts a potential bottom around November 10.
If we consider the historical pattern of corrections unfolding 2 to 2.5 times faster than the periods of rise, we might expect Bitcoin's current correction phase to conclude by mid-November 2024. This timeframe closely aligns with calculated predictions using the recent rapid correction model.
Understanding the dynamics and duration of altcoin corrections is also crucial in the cryptocurrency market. This is the second major correction of the year, following a first phase that lasted from March through August, encompassing a total of 154 days. ETHNews analysts utilize various methods to predict the duration of such corrections, providing insights into potential recovery timelines.
To predict correction durations, analysts often utilize the Fibonacci sequence, a widely used method in financial analysis known for its perceived predictive accuracy regarding natural patterns in market movements. By dividing the 154-day duration of the initial correction phase by 1.618, analysts estimate that the current correction could last approximately 95 days. Alternatively, a more aggressive estimate using 2.618 suggests a shorter duration of about 58 days.
It's important to note that market corrections do not occur in a linear fashion. They typically include intermittent periods of gains ("green weeks") amid overall declines ("red weeks"), indicating a bearish trend. Following the shorter forecast of around 58 days, we can expect this correction to reflect the market's volatile nature.
Looking at the long-term predictions, analysts project that the altcoin market will not see a new lower low until at least 2026. This suggests a stabilization and potential gradual recovery phase post-correction. Such a long-term outlook is crucial for investors seeking stability and recovery potentials in their portfolios. However, it's worth noting that the impact of the correction may vary across different cryptocurrencies, with high-value altcoins like Binance Coin (BNB) potentially experiencing significant downturns due to their previous high trading positions.